Rosenberg Capital pursues high-conviction investments in structurally advantaged businesses with durable competitive positions, strong capital allocation discipline, and the ability to compound earnings over multi-year periods.
We believe concentration, when supported by rigorous fundamental research and pre-committed decision-making, is a source of alpha rather than a source of risk.
Every position is entered in three pre-defined tranches. Entry zones are set before any capital is deployed and are never adjusted under price pressure.
T1 — Initiate: A starter position when the thesis is clear and the price enters Zone 1. A research memo is required before any T1 entry.
T2 — Add: A meaningful addition on further weakness. The thesis has been tested and held. Conviction is higher than at T1.
T3 — Full Conviction: Maximum allocation, deployed only when scenario clarity confirms the bull or base case, or when price represents genuine long-term value regardless of short-term macro.
Single entries require perfect timing. Tranches remove timing pressure and ensure the largest allocation happens at the point of maximum information and minimum price.
Cash is not idle capital. At Rosenberg Capital, cash is an active position with four defined roles: drawdown cushion, tranche funding reserve, opportunistic deployment vehicle, and psychological stability.
The cash floor is permanently 15% of the portfolio. It is never breached under any circumstances. Above the floor, cash targets are set by market environment.
A fund with meaningful cash watches a market selloff and buys. A fund with no cash watches the same selloff in panic. Cash is what separates disciplined action from emotional reaction.
Rosenberg Capital distinguishes between two fundamentally different types of exit.
A valuation exit is a trim, not a sell. When a position's price has run ahead of its fundamentals, we trim a portion of the position and recycle the capital. The thesis is intact. We never fully exit a great business on valuation alone.
A thesis exit is a full sell, executed quickly and regardless of price. When the original reason for owning the business has been permanently impaired - structural competitive shift, management credibility destroyed, regulatory headwind becoming structural — we exit fully. We do not hold a broken thesis because the price has fallen.
Each investment begins with a written research memo completed before the first share is purchased. The memo defines the thesis, the conditions that would invalidate it, and the exact price zones at which we will initiate, add, and exit.
Positions are sized according to conviction, valuation, and downside assessment - never by benchmark weights. Capital is concentrated in our highest-confidence opportunities.
We maintain active oversight of company fundamentals, competitive dynamics, and macro developments. Every hold, add, or exit decision is made against the original thesis - not the current price.
The fund maintains a concentrated portfolio of 8-12 high-conviction positions, focused on structurally advantaged businesses with durable competitive advantages and long compounding runways.
Position sizing reflects conviction and downside assessment. Largest allocations go to highest-conviction ideas at points of maximum dislocation - not maximum enthusiasm. Short-term volatility is expected and, where thesis remains intact, welcomed as an opportunity to add.
Every investment at Rosenberg Capital begins with a written research memo completed before the first share is purchased.
The memo defines the investment thesis, the competitive dynamics supporting it, the financial characteristics that make the business worth owning, the specific conditions that would invalidate the thesis, and the price zones at which we will initiate, add, and exit.
We monitor positions quarterly against thesis expectations and continuously for invalidation signals, competitor moves, and regulatory developments. Every hold, add, or exit decision is made against the original thesis - not the current price.
At Rosenberg Capital, we use AI tools as an active part of our research and analytical process.
AI assists us in pressure-testing investment theses, identifying counterarguments we may have missed, stress-testing assumptions, and improving the quality of our written analysis. It accelerates the depth of research we can conduct on any given business and helps us think more rigorously before committing capital.
What AI does not do is make investment decisions. Every entry, addition, trim, and exit is governed by our pre-committed process framework and executed by the portfolio managers. The research memo, the thesis, the invalidation criteria, and the entry and exit zones are all human judgements made before the first share is purchased.
As AI technology continues to advance, we constantly adapt our processes and integrate new capabilities to ensure we maintain a competitive edge and a modern, forward-looking investment approach.
We believe this is the right way to use AI in investing - as a tool that sharpens thinking, not one that replaces it.
Disclaimer
© 2025 Rosenberg Capital. All rights reserved.
Investments involve risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial product advice. Funds are open to wholesale or sophisticated investors, including high net worth individuals, as defined under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Rosenberg Capital is a pre-launch investment initiative. This website is for informational purposes only.